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| Rome 2013 Semifinalists (from left) Roger Federer, Benoit Paire, Tomas Berdych and Rafael Nadal |
We're down to the final four at the Italian Open Men's Singles Tournament. For two spots in the finals, world #3 Roger Federer will take on Frenchman Benoit Paire, while Czech Tomas Berdych will battle against Rafael Nadal.
Roger made light work of Janowicz, as did Paire of Granollers. Rafael barely got past an inspired David Ferrer - a match reminiscent of Thursday's, when Rafa again walked away the winner of a scary encounter with Ernest Gulbis. But the talk of the day is Djokovic's shocking loss to Berdych after being up a set and 5-2. Berdych rallied back to take the second set 7-5 and then stole the match by consolidating a vital break to win the third set 6-4. We anticipated surprises but perhaps none of this magnitude.
So how will each man fare in the semifinals tomorrow? Here's my take:
Roger Federer
I'm not going out on a limb when I say that clay isn't his best surface. Part of the reason behind his success at Madrid last year was the experimental blue clay which, to Fed, may have felt more like his forte, grass, than actual clay. He's already failed to defend that title now that the red clay is back at Madrid so how confident can he be here at Rome? Given his age, his form after two months' leave and the presence not only of clay specialists like Nadal but also of younger, nimble (albeit experience-naive) players, Roger will really have to play perfectly to make it through.
Benoit Paire
Benoit is only 24 years old and somewhat in his prime. His absence from many Masters 500 and 1000 matches on this year's tour may leave him less than match-fit and prepared to take on any top ten players but Benoit's last two matches have been straight sets victories, and one of those is against the tall Argentine Juan Martin del Potro, of whom it can be said is in such excellent form as can be compared to 2009 when he won the US Open. Paire has, in fact, without too much extravagance, given his personal best Rome Masters performance this year. He hasn't gotten to a career-high ranking of 32 (as of April 29) by being passive. But his chances to make it to the finals here? Barring a downright awful performance from Roger.... kind of slim.
Tomas Berdych
Often described as a clean hitter of the ball, 6'5" Czech Tomas Berdych has some huge advantages going into his match against Rafa tomorrow: a powerful serve, high-paced, flat groundstrokes and indescribable momentum after just defeating the #1 player in the world on a less than comfortable surface. He also made it to the semifinals at Madrid this year and has consistently remained in the top ten for the past 3 years. One among a very narrow line of players who can actually threaten Rafa on clay, he has a fair chance of coming out on top tomorrow IF he can stay focused and use the court wisely. Not enough players have caught on to the fact that Rafa can be a bit hesitant under pressure with the short ball and if Tomas knocks on his door for long enough, he just might be able to break it down and beat the six time Rome champ.
Rafael Nadal
No doubt the reigning champion has decent confidence levels going into tomorrow's semis. He's made it through two absolutely terrifying matches in the last two days and still managed to pull out seemingly impossible wins. The unpredictable lefty angles, high bounces and tremendous topspin are all weapons in the archive hoping to be unleashed on Saturday and Rafa must be thanking his lucky stars there's no Novak to deal with right now. But he's admitted that he practices on court for only 50 minutes per day now, as compared to the 2 hours he's stuck to for years. The pain in his knee also varies greatly from day to day. Reaching 7 finals might be taking an unmentioned toll of exhaustion on him and let us not forget the back-to-back three-setters he's had to grind through: he is the only semifinalist in this year's draw to have played two three-setters to get to this round. Bottom line, he will play as mere mortals do tomorrow and will not advance to the finals if he plays with even slight complacence.
My final predictions:
Federer dismisses Paire in straight sets: 6-4, 6-3.
Nadal beats Berdych in three: 4-6, 7-5, 7-5.
Do leave your opinions in the comments below and don't forget to breathe tennis!
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